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2016 Senate · IN

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 399 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 37%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.41% · Republican 52.11%

R+9.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 37 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.413 − 52.112 = -9.699
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-9.699) = 12.700
  4. Absolute miss = |12.700| = 12.700

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48346, race ID 78 (538 database).