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2016 Senate · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 704 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.665) = 4.335
  4. Absolute miss = |4.335| = 4.335

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48347, race ID 74 (538 database).