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2016 President · UT

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,424 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 35%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 35 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-18.078) = 12.078
  4. Absolute miss = |12.078| = 12.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48357, race ID 646 (538 database).