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2016 President · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 681 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.54% · Republican 36.83%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.539 − 36.833 = 15.706
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (15.706) = -3.706
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.706| = 3.706

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48365, race ID 649 (538 database).