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2016 President · CO

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,125 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 40%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 40 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.906) = -4.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.906| = 4.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48366, race ID 607 (538 database).