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2016 President · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.26% · Republican 40.04%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.256 − 40.043 = 8.213
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (8.213) = -3.213
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.213| = 3.213

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48476, race ID 634 (538 database).