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2016 Senate · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,151 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 58%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 58 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-20.871) = -0.129
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.129| = 0.129

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48479, race ID 67 (538 database).