Skip to content

2016 Senate · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,189 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 52%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-20.871) = 7.871
  4. Absolute miss = |7.871| = 7.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48481, race ID 67 (538 database).