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2016 Senate · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,188 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-7.666) = 4.666
  4. Absolute miss = |4.666| = 4.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48482, race ID 93 (538 database).