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2016 President · UT

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,350 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 29.52% · Republican 39.95%

R+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29.52 − 39.95 = -10.43
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -10.43 − (-18.078) = 7.648
  4. Absolute miss = |7.648| = 7.648

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48487, race ID 646 (538 database).