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2016 President · FL

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 2,352 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.199) = -1.801
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.801| = 1.801

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48489, race ID 611 (538 database).