2016 President · WI
Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 2,720 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%
R+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (-0.764) = 8.764
- Absolute miss = |8.764| = 8.764
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48495, race ID 650 (538 database).