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2016 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 516 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.137) = 0.862
  4. Absolute miss = |0.862| = 0.862

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48499, race ID 85 (538 database).