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2016 President · national

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,009 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 44.4%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 44.4 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (2.182) = 1.019
  4. Absolute miss = |1.019| = 1.019

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48509, race ID 94 (538 database).