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2016 President · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38.9% · Republican 45.6%

R+6.7

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.9 − 45.6 = -6.70
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = -6.70 − (-8.130) = 1.430
  4. Absolute miss = |1.430| = 1.430

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48516, race ID 637 (538 database).