Skip to content

2016 Senate · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 47.3%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 47.3 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (2.429) = -1.329
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.329| = 1.329

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48517, race ID 63 (538 database).