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2016 President · WI

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,129 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.764) = 4.764
  4. Absolute miss = |4.764| = 4.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48621, race ID 650 (538 database).