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2016 President · MO

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,036 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 54%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 54 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-18.637) = 2.637
  4. Absolute miss = |2.637| = 2.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48622, race ID 626 (538 database).