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2016 President · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.13% · Republican 49.72%

R+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.13 − 49.72 = -3.59
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = -3.59 − (-1.199) = -2.391
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.391| = 2.391

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48624, race ID 611 (538 database).