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2016 President · NH

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 196 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.42% · Republican 41.81%

D+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.42 − 41.81 = 2.61
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 2.61 − (0.367) = 2.242
  4. Absolute miss = |2.242| = 2.242

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48658, race ID 632 (538 database).