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2016 Senate · FL

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 52%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-7.666) = -6.334
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.334| = 6.334

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48676, race ID 93 (538 database).