Skip to content

2016 Senate · NV

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.429) = -2.429
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.429| = 2.429

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48677, race ID 63 (538 database).