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2016 President · NH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 40%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 40 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.367) = 5.632
  4. Absolute miss = |5.632| = 5.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48678, race ID 632 (538 database).