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2016 Senate · OH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 52%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.871) = 6.871
  4. Absolute miss = |6.871| = 6.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48680, race ID 67 (538 database).