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2016 President · PA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.718) = -1.282
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.282| = 1.282

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48681, race ID 640 (538 database).