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2016 President · AL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 328 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.06% · Republican 54.15%

R+16.1

The certified result

Democrat 34.36% · Republican 62.08%

R+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.06 − 54.15 = -16.09
  2. Actual margin = 34.358 − 62.083 = -27.725
  3. Signed miss = -16.09 − (-27.725) = 11.635
  4. Absolute miss = |11.635| = 11.635

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48688, race ID 603 (538 database).