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2016 President · CA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 726 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.85% · Republican 31.74%

D+27.1

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.85 − 31.74 = 27.11
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 27.11 − (30.109) = -2.999
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.999| = 2.999

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48690, race ID 606 (538 database).