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2016 President · GA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.38% · Republican 47.79%

R+5.4

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.38 − 47.79 = -5.41
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -5.41 − (-5.131) = -0.279
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.279| = 0.279

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48692, race ID 612 (538 database).