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2016 President · MA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 365 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.14% · Republican 35.79%

D+17.4

The certified result

Democrat 60.01% · Republican 32.81%

D+27.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.14 − 35.79 = 17.35
  2. Actual margin = 60.005 − 32.808 = 27.197
  3. Signed miss = 17.35 − (27.197) = -9.847
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.847| = 9.847

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48695, race ID 621 (538 database).