Skip to content

2016 President · NC

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 371 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46.9%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46.9 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-3.655) = 2.755
  4. Absolute miss = |2.755| = 2.755

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48699, race ID 629 (538 database).