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2016 President · OH

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 552 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.04 − 46 = 1.04
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = 1.04 − (-8.130) = 9.170
  4. Absolute miss = |9.170| = 9.170

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48700, race ID 637 (538 database).