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2016 President · PA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 498 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 45.19%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 45.19 = 3.01
  2. Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
  3. Signed miss = 3.01 − (-0.718) = 3.728
  4. Absolute miss = |3.728| = 3.728

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48701, race ID 640 (538 database).