Skip to content

2016 President · CO

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 536 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.71% · Republican 42.33%

D+5.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.71 − 42.33 = 5.38
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 5.38 − (4.906) = 0.474
  4. Absolute miss = |0.474| = 0.474

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48704, race ID 607 (538 database).