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2016 President · CT

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 351 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.76% · Republican 39.7%

D+10.1

The certified result

Democrat 54.57% · Republican 40.93%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.76 − 39.7 = 10.06
  2. Actual margin = 54.566 − 40.927 = 13.639
  3. Signed miss = 10.06 − (13.639) = -3.579
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.579| = 3.579

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48705, race ID 608 (538 database).