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2016 President · MD

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.69% · Republican 33.6%

D+22.1

The certified result

Democrat 60.33% · Republican 33.91%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.69 − 33.6 = 22.09
  2. Actual margin = 60.326 − 33.909 = 26.417
  3. Signed miss = 22.09 − (26.417) = -4.326
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.326| = 4.326

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48707, race ID 622 (538 database).