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2016 President · MN

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 647 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.9% · Republican 36%

D+7.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.92%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.9 − 36 = 7.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.445 − 44.925 = 1.520
  3. Signed miss = 7.90 − (1.520) = 6.380
  4. Absolute miss = |6.380| = 6.380

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48708, race ID 625 (538 database).