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2016 President · MS

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 184 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35.93% · Republican 53.09%

R+17.2

The certified result

Democrat 40.12% · Republican 57.94%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.93 − 53.09 = -17.16
  2. Actual margin = 40.115 − 57.941 = -17.826
  3. Signed miss = -17.16 − (-17.826) = 0.666
  4. Absolute miss = |0.666| = 0.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48709, race ID 627 (538 database).