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2016 President · OR

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 465 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.72% · Republican 37.04%

D+9.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 39.09%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.72 − 37.04 = 9.68
  2. Actual margin = 50.072 − 39.094 = 10.978
  3. Signed miss = 9.68 − (10.978) = -1.298
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.298| = 1.298

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48712, race ID 639 (538 database).