Skip to content

2016 President · AK

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 201 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.4% · Republican 37.7%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 36.55% · Republican 51.28%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.4 − 37.7 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 36.551 − 51.282 = -14.731
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (-14.731) = 14.431
  4. Absolute miss = |14.431| = 14.431

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48720, race ID 602 (538 database).