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2016 President · AR

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 736 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 30.5% · Republican 48%

R+17.5

The certified result

Democrat 33.65% · Republican 60.57%

R+26.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30.5 − 48 = -17.50
  2. Actual margin = 33.653 − 60.574 = -26.921
  3. Signed miss = -17.50 − (-26.921) = 9.421
  4. Absolute miss = |9.421| = 9.421

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48722, race ID 604 (538 database).