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2016 President · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 8,746 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.8% · Republican 30.4%

D+21.4

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.8 − 30.4 = 21.40
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 21.40 − (30.109) = -8.709
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.709| = 8.709

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48723, race ID 606 (538 database).