Skip to content

2016 President · DC

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 190 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 79.8% · Republican 6.8%

D+73.0

The certified result

Democrat 90.86% · Republican 4.09%

D+86.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 79.8 − 6.8 = 73.00
  2. Actual margin = 90.864 − 4.087 = 86.777
  3. Signed miss = 73.00 − (86.777) = -13.776
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.776| = 13.776

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48727, race ID 609 (538 database).