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2016 President · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 5,371 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 42.9%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 42.9 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (-1.199) = 2.299
  4. Absolute miss = |2.299| = 2.299

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48728, race ID 611 (538 database).