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2016 President · KS

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 776 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31.6% · Republican 47.5%

R+15.9

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 56.66%

R+20.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31.6 − 47.5 = -15.90
  2. Actual margin = 36.052 − 56.655 = -20.603
  3. Signed miss = -15.90 − (-20.603) = 4.702
  4. Absolute miss = |4.702| = 4.702

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48735, race ID 618 (538 database).