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2016 President · ME

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 437 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.7% · Republican 34%

D+4.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.7 − 34 = 4.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 4.70 − (2.960) = 1.740
  4. Absolute miss = |1.740| = 1.740

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48738, race ID 623 (538 database).