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2016 President · MD

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,652 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 29.2%

D+25.8

The certified result

Democrat 60.33% · Republican 33.91%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 29.2 = 25.80
  2. Actual margin = 60.326 − 33.909 = 26.417
  3. Signed miss = 25.80 − (26.417) = -0.616
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.616| = 0.616

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48739, race ID 622 (538 database).