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2016 President · MS

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 861 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.5% · Republican 45.5%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.12% · Republican 57.94%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.5 − 45.5 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.115 − 57.941 = -17.826
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-17.826) = 11.826
  4. Absolute miss = |11.826| = 11.826

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48743, race ID 627 (538 database).