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2016 President · NE

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 506 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32.3% · Republican 44.9%

R+12.6

The certified result

Democrat 33.70% · Republican 58.75%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.3 − 44.9 = -12.60
  2. Actual margin = 33.699 − 58.747 = -25.048
  3. Signed miss = -12.60 − (-25.048) = 12.449
  4. Absolute miss = |12.449| = 12.449

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48746, race ID 631 (538 database).