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2016 President · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 656 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.5% · Republican 40.9%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.5 − 40.9 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (2.417) = -0.817
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.817| = 0.817

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48747, race ID 635 (538 database).