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2016 President · NJ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 2,377 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 35.7%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.45% · Republican 41.35%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 35.7 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.453 − 41.350 = 14.103
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.103) = -2.103
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.103| = 2.103

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48749, race ID 633 (538 database).